Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$638.01

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,145

Combined PnL+$719.25

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.97

Total Shares5,933

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 77¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$706.39	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 77¢	$38.5	$49.98	+$11.48	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 92¢	$16.08	$17.47	+$1.39	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 23¢	$1.4K	$2.93	$-1.3K	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 16.7¢	$8.68	$0.03	-$8.66	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$1.49	$0.01	-$1.49	50% 10919-10736 (21655)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$2,370

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$706.39

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$38.5

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$11.48

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$16.08

Value

$17.47

PnL

+$1.39

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,350.05

Value

$2.93

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.68

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.66

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.49

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.