Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Columbus Crew (70%) · Columbus Crew at 93¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Columbus Crew93¢D.C. United SC7¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Columbus Crew

Consensus Traders

Columbus Crew 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$823.29

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 92.5¢

+118% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralColumbus Crew at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Columbus Crew

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Columbus Crew93%

D.C. United SC8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Columbus Crew7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,325

Combined PnL+$757.06

D.C. United SC3 traders

Total Value$688.31

Total Shares831

Combined PnL+$66.23

Columbus Crew — 70%D.C. United SC — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Columbus Crewavg 73.7¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$324.49	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Columbus Crew leg	Columbus Crewavg 73.7¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$204.37
└ D.C. United SC leg	D.C. United SCavg 33.1¢	$1.0K	$496.14	-$528.86
LU LuckyLoo	Columbus Crewavg 44¢	$524.48	$1.0K	+$476.8	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
UP UpTheBlues	Columbus Crewavg 44.4¢	$400.64	$621.73	+$221.09	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
SN SnakeBallCTR	D.C. United SCavg 67.4¢	$357	$400.48	+$43.48	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
VeryLucky888CTR	D.C. United SCavg 71¢	$262.48	$284.98	+$22.5	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
NO NordhavenCap	Columbus Crewavg 27.8¢	$71.97	$111.46	+$39.49	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Columbus Crewavg 28.2¢	$39.61	$56.76	+$17.14	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
FO foooool<$100	Columbus Crewavg 80¢	$59.77	$52.59	-$7.18	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
RO Rocko33<$100	Columbus Crewavg 43¢	$8.6	$17	+$8.4	64% 1125-646 (1771)
HRTrading<$100	Columbus Crewavg 59.2¢	$9.35	$10.67	+$1.32	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	D.C. United SCavg 71¢	$2.6	$2.85	+$0.25	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Columbus Crew

Invested

$2,483.64

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$324.49

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Columbus Crew$1,458.6473.7¢+$204.37

D.C. United SC$1,02533.1¢-$528.86

LuckyLoo

Columbus Crew

Invested

$524.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$476.8

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

UpTheBlues

Columbus Crew

Invested

$400.64

Value

$621.73

PnL

+$221.09

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

SnakeBallCTR

D.C. United SC

Invested

$357

Value

$400.48

PnL

+$43.48

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

VeryLucky888CTR

D.C. United SC

Invested

$262.48

Value

$284.98

PnL

+$22.5

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

NordhavenCap

Columbus Crew

Invested

$71.97

Value

$111.46

PnL

+$39.49

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

topdogbigboi<$100

Columbus Crew

Invested

$39.61

Value

$56.76

PnL

+$17.14

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

foooool<$100

Columbus Crew

Invested

$59.77

Value

$52.59

PnL

-$7.18

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Rocko33<$100

Columbus Crew

Invested

$8.6

Value

$17

PnL

+$8.4

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

HRTrading<$100

Columbus Crew

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

D.C. United SC

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

NeutralColumbus Crew at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Columbus Crew

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Columbus Crew wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.