Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Columbus Crew, while the market favors D.C. United SC (59%). 2 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)
2 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Columbus Crew (11%) · Columbus Crew at 41¢ · $126K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Columbus Crew
19
Columbus Crew 11%
1 arb excluded
$126.1K
$199.76
43.7¢ → 41¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralColumbus Crew at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 19 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors D.C. United SC 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Columbus Crew. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH theowalcottCTR | Columbus Crewavg 43.7¢ | $62.8K | $62.5K | -$293.56 | 50% 109-110 (219) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | D.C. United SCavg 56.3¢ | $15.8K | $16.2K | +$385.82 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
| └ D.C. United SC leg | D.C. United SCavg 56.3¢ | $11.8K | $12.4K | +$559.92 | |
| └ Columbus Crew leg | Columbus Crewavg 42.8¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$174.1 | |
UP UpTheBlues | D.C. United SCavg 56.1¢ | $10.9K | $11.4K | +$470.56 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | D.C. United SCavg 56.3¢ | $9.4K | $9.4K | -$56.5 | 50% 2517-2500 (5017) |
FO forecastication4 | D.C. United SCavg 56¢ | $8.4K | $8.5K | +$75.07 | 49% 1166-1197 (2363) |
HI hi774c | D.C. United SCavg 56.7¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$19.62 | 52% 4733-4453 (9186) |
CA Cannae | D.C. United SCavg 56.4¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$9.9 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
LU LuckyLoo | D.C. United SCavg 58¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$1.32 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
 VeryLucky888 | D.C. United SCavg 56.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$8.74 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
AN AnonymousUsername | D.C. United SCavg 55.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$28.78 | 74% 6686-2399 (9085) |
 0xheavy888 | D.C. United SCavg 57.3¢ | $688 | $672 | -$16 | 55% 7128-5716 (12844) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | D.C. United SCavg 56¢ | $500 | $504.46 | +$4.46 | 51% 3937-3843 (7780) |
NO Notradecopy | D.C. United SCavg 56¢ | $500 | $504.46 | +$4.46 | 49% 3927-4117 (8044) |
 HRTrading | D.C. United SCavg 56¢ | $270.76 | $273.18 | +$2.42 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | D.C. United SCavg 58¢ | $201.76 | $196.62 | -$5.14 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
SN SnakeBall | D.C. United SCavg 56.3¢ | $136.29 | $136.73 | +$0.44 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | D.C. United SCavg 56¢ | $63.7 | $62.56 | +$1.71 | 50% 3874-3834 (7708) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Columbus Crewavg 41¢ | $41 | $41.5 | +$0.5 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | D.C. United SCavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $11.3 | -$0.3 | 51% 1453-1400 (2853) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | D.C. United SCavg 55.5¢ | $10 | $10 | -$0 | 48% 2404-2633 (5037) |
Invested
$62,798.82
Value
$62.5K
PnL
-$293.56
Record
50%
109-110 (219)
Invested
$15,843.26
Value
$16.2K
PnL
+$385.82
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Both legs:
Invested
$10,915.03
Value
$11.4K
PnL
+$470.56
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$9,414.58
Value
$9.4K
PnL
-$56.5
Record
50%
2517-2500 (5017)
Invested
$8,407.28
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$75.07
Record
49%
1166-1197 (2363)
Invested
$5,047.42
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$19.62
Record
52%
4733-4453 (9186)
Invested
$4,831.7
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$9.9
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
Invested
$2,596.79
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$1.32
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,899.98
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$8.74
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$1,431.61
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$28.78
Record
74%
6686-2399 (9085)
0xheavy888Invested
$688
Value
$672
PnL
-$16
Record
55%
7128-5716 (12844)
Invested
$500
Value
$504.46
PnL
+$4.46
Record
51%
3937-3843 (7780)
Invested
$500
Value
$504.46
PnL
+$4.46
Record
49%
3927-4117 (8044)
HRTradingInvested
$270.76
Value
$273.18
PnL
+$2.42
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$201.76
Value
$196.62
PnL
-$5.14
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$136.29
Value
$136.73
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
Invested
$63.7
Value
$62.56
PnL
+$1.71
Record
50%
3874-3834 (7708)
Invested
$41
Value
$41.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$11.3
PnL
-$0.3
Record
51%
1453-1400 (2853)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2404-2633 (5037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
theowalcott
CTRColumbus Crew — $62.5K
GoalLineGhost
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpTheBlues
D.C. United SC — $11.4K
0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3
D.C. United SC — $9.4K
forecastication4
D.C. United SC — $8.5K
hi774c
D.C. United SC — $5.0K
Cannae
D.C. United SC — $4.8K
LuckyLoo
D.C. United SC — $2.6K
VeryLucky888
D.C. United SC — $1.8K
AnonymousUsername
D.C. United SC — $1.5K