Columbus Crew leading at halftime?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 90¢ · $57 held · ended Oct 31

Yes90¢No10¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$57.31

Combined PnL

$3.1

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$56.77

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$3.7

No1 trader

Total Value$0.54

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.6

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$48.16	$49.89	+$1.72	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.7	$4.5	+$1.8	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$2.2	$2.38	+$0.18	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.14	$0.54	-$0.6	59% 10257-7240 (17497)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.16

Value

$49.89

PnL

+$1.72

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.8

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.6

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.