Will Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$61.18

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 99.7¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares10,760

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$37.92

Total Shares10,834

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 87.8¢	$9.0K	$10.2K	+$1.2K	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 93.2¢	$406.24	$434.47	+$28.23	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$49.99	$50.02	+$0.03	51% 480-462 (942)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$36.24	$45.2	+$8.95	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$1.3K	$36.82	$-1.3K	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$12.43	$12.97	+$0.53	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 85¢	$1.42	$1.66	+$0.24	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$16.8	$0.98	-$15.82	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$3.55	$0.07	-$3.48	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$2.5	$0.05	-$2.45	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$8,967.6

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$406.24

Value

$434.47

PnL

+$28.23

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$49.99

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

480-462 (942)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$36.24

Value

$45.2

PnL

+$8.95

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,324.89

Value

$36.82

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$12.43

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

foooool<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.8

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$15.82

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.48

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.45

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.