Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$195.17

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares12,119

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$827.2

Total Shares16,432

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 86.3¢	$5.7K	$6.6K	+$902.98	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 88¢	$4.5K	$5.1K	+$577.85	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$1.6K	$477.23	$-1.1K	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$979.93	$349.97	-$629.95	32% 731-1558 (2289)
CA Cannae	Noavg 88¢	$155.7	$175.11	+$19.41	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$85.49	$89.77	+$4.28	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$62.09	$64.13	+$2.04	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$50.52	$48.88	-$1.64	52% 13817-12605 (26422)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$5,719.21

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$902.98

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$4,500

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$577.85

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,599.24

Value

$477.23

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Yes

Invested

$979.93

Value

$349.97

PnL

-$629.95

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

Cannae

Invested

$155.7

Value

$175.11

PnL

+$19.41

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$85.49

Value

$89.77

PnL

+$4.28

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$62.09

Value

$64.13

PnL

+$2.04

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$50.52

Value

$48.88

PnL

-$1.64

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.