Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to Score

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 89.5¢

+78% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,165

Combined PnL+$967.28

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,142

Combined PnL+$57.13

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 49.1¢	$1.2K	$2.2K	+$972.42	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$90.49	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 50¢	$789.5	$789.5	+$0	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 57.3¢	$315.97	$275.86	-$31.83	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
FO foooool	Noavg 61.4¢	$106.88	$115.29	+$8.41	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 81¢	$40.5	$25	-$15.5	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$5.25	$7.56	+$2.3	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 60¢	$2.13	$1.78	-$0.36	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$2.6	$1.07	-$1.53	50% 33488-33047 (66535)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,180.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$972.42

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

NordhavenCapCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,241.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$90.49

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

torta.tech

Invested

$789.5

Value

$789.5

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$315.97

Value

$275.86

PnL

-$31.83

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

foooool

Invested

$106.88

Value

$115.29

PnL

+$8.41

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$15.5

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$2.3

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$1.53

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.