Chicago Fire FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 93¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
$518.11
77.2¢ → 92.5¢
+20% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 77.1¢ | $2.9K | $3.5K | +$590.82 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 22.9¢ | $1.1K | $967.27 | -$129.34 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 22.9¢ | $871.73 | $724.84 | -$146.89 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 75.1¢ | $224.87 | $242.43 | +$17.55 | |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Overavg 17¢ | $262.65 | $424.88 | +$69.53 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 79¢ | $330.32 | $209.07 | -$121.26 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $73.91 | $70.99 | -$2.92 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $31.64 | $20.81 | -$10.82 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $22.11 | $13.99 | -$8.12 | 58% 28159-20759 (48918) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $8.69 | $9.57 | +$0.88 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$2,949.98
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$590.82
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$1,096.6
Value
$967.27
PnL
-$129.34
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Both legs:
Invested
$262.65
Value
$424.88
PnL
+$69.53
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
VeryLucky888Invested
$330.32
Value
$209.07
PnL
-$121.26
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$73.91
Value
$70.99
PnL
-$2.92
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$31.64
Value
$20.81
PnL
-$10.82
Record
56%
6932-5550 (12482)
Invested
$22.11
Value
$13.99
PnL
-$8.12
Record
58%
28159-20759 (48918)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.69
Value
$9.57
PnL
+$0.88
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.