Chicago Fire FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 74¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 29

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 74¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares22,340

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares8,752

Combined PnL-$458.18

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 49.7¢	$5.3K	$7.8K	+$2.5K	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
SY Syrrok	Underavg 82.2¢	$8.0K	$7.2K	-$800.08	61% 1783-1127 (2910)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 41.6¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$648.46	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 65.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.22	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 34¢	$662.66	$1.1K	+$185.16	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 49.6¢	$253.9	$276.47	+$22.58	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 48¢	$196.84	$215.17	+$18.33	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 63¢	$179.35	$162.95	-$16.41	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
TO torta.techCTR	Overavg 57¢	$118.56	$117.52	-$1.04	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 63¢	$40.94	$33.79	-$7.15	58% 28159-20759 (48918)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 39¢	$20.4	$28.35	+$7.95	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 54.3¢	$19.3	$26.28	+$6.98	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$5,290.43

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

Syrrok

Under

Invested

$7,999.99

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$800.08

Record

61%

1783-1127 (2910)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,432.08

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$648.46

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,292.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.22

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$662.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$185.16

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$253.9

Value

$276.47

PnL

+$22.58

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$196.84

Value

$215.17

PnL

+$18.33

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$179.35

Value

$162.95

PnL

-$16.41

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

torta.techCTR

Over

Invested

$118.56

Value

$117.52

PnL

-$1.04

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$40.94

Value

$33.79

PnL

-$7.15

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$20.4

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$7.95

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$19.3

Value

$26.28

PnL

+$6.98

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.