Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Orlando City SC (67%) · Orlando City SC at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Orlando City SC
6
Orlando City SC 67%
$3.3K
-$264.1
74.7¢ → 90.5¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOrlando City SC at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Orlando City SCavg 74.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$27.24 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Chicago Fire FCavg 25.4¢ | $628.98 | $407.98 | -$221 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
AN Anon455 | Orlando City SCavg 74¢ | $185 | $177.5 | -$7.5 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Orlando City SCavg 74.2¢ | $89.76 | $85.91 | -$3.85 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Orlando City SCavg 71¢ | $26.27 | $26.27 | +$0 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Chicago Fire FCavg 24.8¢ | $10.86 | $6.36 | -$4.5 | 50% 32883-32441 (65324) |
Invested
$2,666.45
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$27.24
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$628.98
Value
$407.98
PnL
-$221
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$185
Value
$177.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$89.76
Value
$85.91
PnL
-$3.85
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.27
Value
$26.27
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$6.36
PnL
-$4.5
Record
50%
32883-32441 (65324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.