Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chicago Fire FC, while the market favors Orlando City SC (79%). 1 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)

1 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Chicago Fire FC (5%) · Chicago Fire FC at 22¢ · $273K held · ended Oct 29

Chicago Fire FC22¢Orlando City SC78¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chicago Fire FC

Consensus Traders

Chicago Fire FC 5%

Total Value

$273.3K

Combined PnL

$18.9K

Research grade

AvoidChicago Fire FC at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chicago Fire FC

1 of 20 top traders (5%)Underdog side (market favors Orlando City SC 79%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chicago Fire FC22%

Orlando City SC79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chicago Fire FC1 trader

Total Value$133.7K

Total Shares290,734

Combined PnL+$737.97

Orlando City SC19 traders

Total Value$139.6K

Total Shares228,981

Combined PnL+$18.2K

Chicago Fire FC — 5%Orlando City SC — 95%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on Chicago Fire FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOrlando City SC 100% · 8

Diverging

ctrOrlando City SC 92% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOrlando City SC 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Orlando City SC 93% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR	Chicago Fire FCavg 47.2¢	$137.4K	$133.7K	+$737.97	46% 52-60 (112)
UP UpTheBlues	Orlando City SCavg 53¢	$32.1K	$47.5K	+$15.4K	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
MO mooseborzoii	Orlando City SCavg 52¢	$45.1K	$46.8K	+$1.7K	50% 1143-1136 (2279)
Nooserac	Orlando City SCavg 52¢	$20.8K	$21.6K	+$200.08	52% 5722-5285 (11007)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Orlando City SCavg 53.7¢	$7.5K	$7.6K	+$40	47% 2421-2705 (5126)
LU LuckyLoo	Orlando City SCavg 52.3¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$107.08	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
GO GoalLineGhost	Orlando City SCavg 56.7¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$417.26	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
VeryLucky888	Orlando City SCavg 55.8¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$57.02	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
FO forecastication4	Orlando City SCavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$48.84	49% 1130-1160 (2290)
CA Cannae	Orlando City SCavg 54.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$6.27	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
poshposh	Orlando City SCavg 53.3¢	$744.38	$1.0K	+$275.49	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
HRTrading	Orlando City SCavg 53.4¢	$967.14	$977.78	+$10.64	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0xheavy888	Orlando City SCavg 53.3¢	$640	$648	-$10	56% 6932-5550 (12482)
AN Anon455	Orlando City SCavg 54.5¢	$325	$446.25	+$121.25	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
tradecraft	Orlando City SCavg 53.1¢	$326.42	$331.84	+$5.42	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Orlando City SCavg 55.3¢	$99.6	$95.4	-$4.2	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Orlando City SCavg 55.4¢	$49.9	$65.35	+$15.45	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Orlando City SCavg 55¢	$21.67	$21.28	-$0.39	50% 3721-3695 (7416)
US User7429<$100	Orlando City SCavg 58¢	$20.3	$18.55	-$1.75	55% 8126-6560 (14686)
FO foooool<$100	Orlando City SCavg 69¢	$6.9	$7.05	+$0.15	50% 10588-10447 (21035)

OhWhenTheRedsCTR

Chicago Fire FC

Invested

$137,370.99

Value

$133.7K

PnL

+$737.97

Record

46%

52-60 (112)

UpTheBlues

Orlando City SC

Invested

$32,087.28

Value

$47.5K

PnL

+$15.4K

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

mooseborzoii

Orlando City SC

Invested

$45,073.56

Value

$46.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

1143-1136 (2279)

Nooserac

Orlando City SC

Invested

$20,800

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$200.08

Record

52%

5722-5285 (11007)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Orlando City SC

Invested

$7,520

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$40

Record

47%

2421-2705 (5126)

LuckyLoo

Orlando City SC

Invested

$4,788.84

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$107.08

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

GoalLineGhost

Orlando City SC

Invested

$2,303.15

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$417.26

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

VeryLucky888

Orlando City SC

Invested

$1,904.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$57.02

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

forecastication4

Orlando City SC

Invested

$1,790.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$48.84

Record

49%

1130-1160 (2290)

Cannae

Orlando City SC

Invested

$1,292.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$6.27

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

poshposh

Orlando City SC

Invested

$744.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$275.49

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

HRTrading

Orlando City SC

Invested

$967.14

Value

$977.78

PnL

+$10.64

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xheavy888

Orlando City SC

Invested

$640

Value

$648

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

Anon455

Orlando City SC

Invested

$325

Value

$446.25

PnL

+$121.25

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

tradecraft

Orlando City SC

Invested

$326.42

Value

$331.84

PnL

+$5.42

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

NordhavenCap<$100

Orlando City SC

Invested

$99.6

Value

$95.4

PnL

-$4.2

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

SnakeBall<$100

Orlando City SC

Invested

$49.9

Value

$65.35

PnL

+$15.45

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

NatoAlfista<$100

Orlando City SC

Invested

$21.67

Value

$21.28

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

3721-3695 (7416)

User7429<$100

Orlando City SC

Invested

$20.3

Value

$18.55

PnL

-$1.75

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

foooool<$100

Orlando City SC

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

Research grade

AvoidChicago Fire FC at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chicago Fire FC

1 of 20 top traders (5%)Underdog side (market favors Orlando City SC 79%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on Chicago Fire FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOrlando City SC 100% · 8

Diverging

ctrOrlando City SC 92% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOrlando City SC 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Orlando City SC 93% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chicago Fire FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.