Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-10-28?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$279.12

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 65.5¢

-19% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,495

Combined PnL-$279.12

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$222.7	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 80.4¢	$699.53	$622.4	-$77.14	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 81¢	$1.2K	$191.95	+$24.54	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
CA Cannae	Noavg 80.9¢	$164.8	$170.06	+$5.26	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
0xheavy888	Noavg 81¢	$200	$167	+$5	56% 6932-5550 (12482)
HRTrading	Noavg 81.8¢	$162.87	$142.29	-$20.59	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
poshposh	Noavg 69¢	$103.5	$107.25	+$3.75	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$83.81	$85.43	+$1.62	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$49.98	$50.87	+$0.89
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$33.83	$34.56	+$0.72
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$78.41	$80.59	+$2.18	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 83¢	$47.93	$48.22	+$0.29	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.1	$7.1	+$0	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$4.18	+$0.32	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 84¢	$3.35	$3.29	-$0.06	67% 23140-11541 (34681)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,247.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$222.7

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$699.53

Value

$622.4

PnL

-$77.14

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,214.99

Value

$191.95

PnL

+$24.54

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

Cannae

Invested

$164.8

Value

$170.06

PnL

+$5.26

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

0xheavy888

Invested

$200

Value

$167

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

HRTrading

Invested

$162.87

Value

$142.29

PnL

-$20.59

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

poshposh

Invested

$103.5

Value

$107.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.81

Value

$85.43

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

Both legs:

Yes$49.9828¢+$0.89

No$33.8370¢+$0.72

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$78.41

Value

$80.59

PnL

+$2.18

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$47.93

Value

$48.22

PnL

+$0.29

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.06

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.