Austin FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 85¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$275.23

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 84.5¢

+44% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,644

Combined PnL+$133.62

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,149

Combined PnL+$141.61

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 39.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$82.24	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.6¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$128.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$46.23
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 60.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$42.38	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 55.1¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$408.18	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	Overavg 39¢	$754.43	$522.3	-$232.13	46% 33-38 (71)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 46.4¢	$269.02	$356.78	+$87.76	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$49.38	$53.5	+$4.12	51% 448-435 (883)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Overavg 33.6¢	$84.94	$50.6	-$34.34	64% 1014-578 (1592)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 61.4¢	$27.38	$23.18	-$4.21	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$15.86	$19.3	+$3.44	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69.1¢	$10.61	$9.75	-$0.86	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$4.14	$5.04	+$0.9	56% 6932-5550 (12482)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,939.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$82.24

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Both legs:

Over$1,661.6139.6¢-$128.47

Under$1,278.1361.3¢+$46.23

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,427.11

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$42.38

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$1,558.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$408.18

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

DelidelaDeleCTR

Over

Invested

$754.43

Value

$522.3

PnL

-$232.13

Record

46%

33-38 (71)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$269.02

Value

$356.78

PnL

+$87.76

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.38

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$4.12

Record

51%

448-435 (883)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.94

Value

$50.6

PnL

-$34.34

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.38

Value

$23.18

PnL

-$4.21

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$15.86

Value

$19.3

PnL

+$3.44

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$10.61

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.86

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$4.14

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.9

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.