Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-10-28?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.4K
$232.73
59.8¢ → 56.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Noavg 59¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$160.54 | 52% 4645-4354 (8999) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 61¢ | $973.02 | $955.76 | +$82.85 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $50 | $43.42 | -$6.58 | 49% 258-264 (522) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.6¢ | $13.82 | $11.22 | -$2.6 | 53% 2956-2611 (5567) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $6.92 | $5.44 | -$1.48 | 53% 15721-13896 (29617) |
Invested
$1,183.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$160.54
Record
52%
4645-4354 (8999)
VeryLucky888Invested
$973.02
Value
$955.76
PnL
+$82.85
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$43.42
PnL
-$6.58
Record
49%
258-264 (522)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.82
Value
$11.22
PnL
-$2.6
Record
53%
2956-2611 (5567)
Invested
$6.92
Value
$5.44
PnL
-$1.48
Record
53%
15721-13896 (29617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.