Will Austin FC win on 2026-10-28?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$99.84

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 98.5¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL+$97.57

Yes3 traders

Total Value$121.42

Total Shares325

Combined PnL+$2.27

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Noavg 71.4¢	$411.08	$440.46	-$5.16	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 63.7¢	$205.82	$281.11	+$75.29	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$76.51	$80.79	+$4.28	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$54.45	$73.86	+$19.41	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$53.25	$69.64	+$16.4	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$71.81	$57.55	-$14.26	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$57.44	$55.53	-$1.9	64% 1014-578 (1592)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$39.67	$40.38	+$0.71	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 70¢	$28.14	$28.74	+$0.6	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$22.05	$25.52	+$3.47	58% 28159-20759 (48918)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 96¢	$18.79	$18.01	-$0.78	46% 2048-2439 (4487)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 71¢	$12.25	$12.33	+$0.09	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$7.65	$9.35	+$1.7	58% 18441-13525 (31966)

Cannae

Invested

$411.08

Value

$440.46

PnL

-$5.16

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$205.82

Value

$281.11

PnL

+$75.29

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$76.51

Value

$80.79

PnL

+$4.28

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$54.45

Value

$73.86

PnL

+$19.41

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$53.25

Value

$69.64

PnL

+$16.4

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$71.81

Value

$57.55

PnL

-$14.26

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.44

Value

$55.53

PnL

-$1.9

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.67

Value

$40.38

PnL

+$0.71

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

foooool<$100

Invested

$28.14

Value

$28.74

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.05

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$3.47

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

poposub<$100

Invested

$18.79

Value

$18.01

PnL

-$0.78

Record

46%

2048-2439 (4487)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.7

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.