Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 43¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$128.31
-$6.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $55.97 | $59.68 | +$3.71 | 50% 21194-21457 (42651) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $65.11 | $57.57 | -$7.53 | 48% 61202-65997 (127199) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $9.9 | $7.65 | -$2.25 | 53% 2579-2261 (4840) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $3.36 | $3.4 | +$0.04 | 69% 7209-3190 (10399) |
Invested
$55.97
Value
$59.68
PnL
+$3.71
Record
50%
21194-21457 (42651)
Invested
$65.11
Value
$57.57
PnL
-$7.53
Record
48%
61202-65997 (127199)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.9
Value
$7.65
PnL
-$2.25
Record
53%
2579-2261 (4840)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.04
Record
69%
7209-3190 (10399)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.