Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (28%) · Yes at 89¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 1

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.4K

Combined PnL

$125.49

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 88.5¢

+93% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares42,045

Combined PnL+$630.3

No13 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares34,637

Combined PnL-$504.81

Yes — 28%No — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDele	Yesavg 46¢	$17.9K	$17.7K	-$195	44% 34-43 (77)
us391CTR	Noavg 54¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$63.93	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
KI kip3366CTR	Noavg 54¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$38.34	46% 45-52 (97)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 54¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$30.66	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$3.9K	$2.7K	$-1.2K	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.2¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$612.4
└ No leg	Noavg 49.1¢	$2.3K	$546.56	$-1.8K
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 44.8¢	$1.7K	$2.6K	+$860.09	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15	47% 2575-2863 (5438)
JO jole24CTR	Noavg 53¢	$837.4	$845.3	+$7.9	44% 1031-1292 (2323)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 53.1¢	$623.48	$628.56	+$5.08	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 53¢	$212	$214	+$2	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 44¢	$186.76	$179.78	-$6.98	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 51.7¢	$659.43	$146.63	-$512.81	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 73.1¢	$112.19	$84.39	-$27.8	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$70.69	$48.95	-$21.74	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$72	$17.25	-$54.75	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$30.53	$15.36	-$15.17	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$5.2	$3.3	-$1.9	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.63	-$0.02	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$1.59	$1.57	-$0.02	66% 23472-11826 (35298)

DelidelaDele

Yes

Invested

$17,940

Value

$17.7K

PnL

-$195

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

us391CTR

Invested

$6,904.58

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$63.93

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

kip3366CTR

Invested

$4,140.44

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$38.34

Record

46%

45-52 (97)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$3,465.9

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$30.66

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,863.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

Yes$1,530.3563.2¢+$612.4

No$2,333.4949.1¢$-1.8K

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,693.76

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$860.09

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$1,590

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

2575-2863 (5438)

jole24CTR

Invested

$837.4

Value

$845.3

PnL

+$7.9

Record

44%

1031-1292 (2323)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$623.48

Value

$628.56

PnL

+$5.08

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$212

Value

$214

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$186.76

Value

$179.78

PnL

-$6.98

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$659.43

Value

$146.63

PnL

-$512.81

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$112.19

Value

$84.39

PnL

-$27.8

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$70.69

Value

$48.95

PnL

-$21.74

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$54.75

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$30.53

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$15.17

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$1.9

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.02

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.