Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 66¢ · $860 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$860.45
$0.03
62.5¢ → 65.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 62¢ | $529.51 | $529.51 | +$0 | 54% 16882-14151 (31033) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 64¢ | $174.84 | $176.21 | +$1.37 | 56% 6927-5543 (12470) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 62¢ | $119.66 | $119.66 | +$0 | 49% 559-581 (1140) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $21.47 | $20.48 | -$0.99 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $12.35 | $11.78 | -$0.57 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $2.59 | $2.81 | +$0.22 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$529.51
Value
$529.51
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
16882-14151 (31033)
0xheavy888Invested
$174.84
Value
$176.21
PnL
+$1.37
Record
56%
6927-5543 (12470)
Invested
$119.66
Value
$119.66
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
559-581 (1140)
Invested
$21.47
Value
$20.48
PnL
-$0.99
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$11.78
PnL
-$0.57
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.81
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.