Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 48¢ · $79K held · ends Oct 29

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$79.3K

Combined PnL

-$564.13

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$46.4K

Total Shares94,902

Combined PnL+$700.61

Under5 traders

Total Value$32.9K

Total Shares65,785

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BrotherObamaCTR	Overavg 49¢	$25.0K	$25.5K	+$510.2	41% 245-348 (593)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$20.5K	$20.7K	+$188.27	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53¢	$16.4K	$15.4K	-$914.46	49% 558-581 (1139)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 51¢	$15.6K	$15.3K	-$300	54% 572-492 (1064)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$52.27	54% 16879-14148 (31027)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 51¢	$266.63	$261.4	+$2.61	46% 409-475 (884)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Overavg 47¢	$163.31	$165.5	+$2.19	54% 2922-2511 (5433)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 53¢	$66.77	$66.14	-$0.63	50% 32806-32358 (65164)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	51% 1295-1231 (2526)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$3.29	$3.26	-$0.03	53% 3109-2775 (5884)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	47% 2075-2359 (4434)

BrotherObamaCTR

Over

Invested

$25,000

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$510.2

Record

41%

245-348 (593)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Over

Invested

$20,491.55

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$188.27

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$16,356.93

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$914.46

Record

49%

558-581 (1139)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$15,619.05

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$300

Record

54%

572-492 (1064)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,859

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$52.27

Record

54%

16879-14148 (31027)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$266.63

Value

$261.4

PnL

+$2.61

Record

46%

409-475 (884)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Over

Invested

$163.31

Value

$165.5

PnL

+$2.19

Record

54%

2922-2511 (5433)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$66.77

Value

$66.14

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

32806-32358 (65164)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1295-1231 (2526)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

3109-2775 (5884)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2075-2359 (4434)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.