Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 68¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$6.3K
$413.35
77.7¢ → 67.5¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 69.9¢ | $3.5K | $4.1K | +$555.64 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
US User7429 | Overavg 96¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$145.01 | 55% 8126-6560 (14686) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 21¢ | $437.85 | $427.42 | -$10.42 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
BO BoomLaLa | Overavg 68.5¢ | $137 | $149 | +$12 | 53% 11468-9983 (21451) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $48.83 | $50.49 | +$1.66 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $7.28 | $6.76 | -$0.52 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
Invested
$3,517.82
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$555.64
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$1,740.09
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$145.01
Record
55%
8126-6560 (14686)
RN1CTRInvested
$437.85
Value
$427.42
PnL
-$10.42
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
Invested
$137
Value
$149
PnL
+$12
Record
53%
11468-9983 (21451)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$48.83
Value
$50.49
PnL
+$1.66
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$6.76
PnL
-$0.52
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.