Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Brewers (60%) · Milwaukee Brewers at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Milwaukee Brewers
5
Milwaukee Brewers 60%
$3.3K
$16.15
74.4¢ → 94¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMilwaukee Brewers at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 74¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$13.76 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
KR KrownCTR | Tampa Bay Raysavg 25.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10.68 | 47% 222-252 (474) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Milwaukee Brewersavg 76.7¢ | $131.54 | $140.66 | +$9.12 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 25¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 | 54% 4814-4045 (8859) |
 RN1<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 89.1¢ | $35.63 | $38.58 | +$2.95 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,036.05
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$13.76
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$1,065.47
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10.68
Record
47%
222-252 (474)
Invested
$131.54
Value
$140.66
PnL
+$9.12
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$50
Value
$51
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
4814-4045 (8859)
RN1<$100Invested
$35.63
Value
$38.58
PnL
+$2.95
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.