Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tampa Bay Rays (50%) · Tampa Bay Rays at 58¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 29

Milwaukee Brewers42¢Tampa Bay Rays58¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tampa Bay Rays

Consensus Traders

Tampa Bay Rays 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.5K

Combined PnL

$874.98

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 58¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTampa Bay Rays at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tampa Bay Rays

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Milwaukee Brewers42%

Tampa Bay Rays58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tampa Bay Rays4 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares22,477

Combined PnL-$291.88

Milwaukee Brewers4 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares14,334

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Tampa Bay Rays — 50%Milwaukee Brewers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Tampa Bay Rays. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTampa Bay Rays 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperTampa Bay Rays 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTampa Bay Rays 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTampa Bay Rays 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tampa Bay Rays 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Tampa Bay Raysavg 57¢	$8.4K	$8.6K	+$219.96	54% 572-492 (1064)
stringXXCTR	Milwaukee Brewersavg 43.1¢	$5.3K	$6.3K	+$1.0K	50% 94-94 (188)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 42.5¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$86.5	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Milwaukee Brewers leg	Milwaukee Brewersavg 42.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$146.09
└ Tampa Bay Rays leg	Tampa Bay Raysavg 59.7¢	$680.23	$620.63	-$59.6
0xheavy888	Tampa Bay Raysavg 58¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$294.72	56% 6932-5550 (12482)
VigorishVault	Tampa Bay Raysavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$27.12	— 4-0 (4)
StudyPrediction	Tampa Bay Raysavg 58¢	$1.2K	$970	-$190	53% 4550-3966 (8516)
RN1CTR	Milwaukee Brewersavg 40¢	$826.46	$960.5	+$134.05	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 42¢	$28.56	$31.62	+$3.06	54% 2922-2511 (5433)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.7	+$0.5	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$8,357.86

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$219.96

Record

54%

572-492 (1064)

stringXXCTR

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$5,250.42

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

94-94 (188)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$2,770.53

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$86.5

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Milwaukee Brewers$2,090.3142.5¢+$146.09

Tampa Bay Rays$680.2359.7¢-$59.6

0xheavy888

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$1,799.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$294.72

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

VigorishVault

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$1,342.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$27.12

Record

—

4-0 (4)

StudyPrediction

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$1,160

Value

$970

PnL

-$190

Record

53%

4550-3966 (8516)

RN1CTR

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$826.46

Value

$960.5

PnL

+$134.05

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$28.56

Value

$31.62

PnL

+$3.06

Record

54%

2922-2511 (5433)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

NeutralTampa Bay Rays at 58%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tampa Bay Rays

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Tampa Bay Rays. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTampa Bay Rays 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperTampa Bay Rays 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTampa Bay Rays 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTampa Bay Rays 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tampa Bay Rays 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tampa Bay Rays wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.