Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Brewers (20%) · Milwaukee Brewers at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Milwaukee Brewers
5
Milwaukee Brewers 20%
1 arb excluded
$8.9K
-$9.61
Research grade
NeutralMilwaukee Brewers at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Brewers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stackingsatsARB<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 41.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.9K | +$78.14 | 48% 331-364 (695) |
| └ Tampa Bay Rays leg | Tampa Bay Raysavg 41.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$29.94 | |
| └ Milwaukee Brewers leg | Milwaukee Brewersavg 53¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$108.08 | |
LI lightotunnel35 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 58¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$0 | 53% 47-41 (88) |
 NostdamCTR | Tampa Bay Raysavg 43¢ | $504.54 | $498.6 | -$5.94 | 54% 1426-1222 (2648) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Tampa Bay Raysavg 43¢ | $221.02 | $215.88 | -$2.57 | 60% 117-77 (194) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 42¢ | $90.3 | $89.23 | -$1.08 | 53% 3017-2681 (5698) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.07 | -$0.03 | 50% 3892-3871 (7763) |
Invested
$4,786.78
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$78.14
Record
48%
331-364 (695)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,139.93
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
47-41 (88)
NostdamCTRInvested
$504.54
Value
$498.6
PnL
-$5.94
Record
54%
1426-1222 (2648)
Invested
$221.02
Value
$215.88
PnL
-$2.57
Record
60%
117-77 (194)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$90.3
Value
$89.23
PnL
-$1.08
Record
53%
3017-2681 (5698)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
3892-3871 (7763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.