Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Tampa Bay Rays, while the market favors Milwaukee Brewers (78%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tampa Bay Rays (17%) · Tampa Bay Rays at 23¢ · $838 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Tampa Bay Rays
6
Tampa Bay Rays 17%
$838.31
-$59.7
Research grade
AvoidTampa Bay Rays at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Milwaukee Brewers 78%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE neymar1CTR | Tampa Bay Raysavg 21¢ | $466.62 | $388.85 | -$77.77 | 30% 321-758 (1079) |
FO Forecastication2 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 79¢ | $326.18 | $340.63 | +$14.45 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 79¢ | $39.5 | $41.25 | +$1.75 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 75¢ | $27.75 | $27.94 | +$0.18 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 79¢ | $22.91 | $23.92 | +$1.01 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
 RN1<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 79¢ | $15.05 | $15.71 | +$0.67 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
Invested
$466.62
Value
$388.85
PnL
-$77.77
Record
30%
321-758 (1079)
Invested
$326.18
Value
$340.63
PnL
+$14.45
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
Invested
$39.5
Value
$41.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
Invested
$27.75
Value
$27.94
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$22.91
Value
$23.92
PnL
+$1.01
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.05
Value
$15.71
PnL
+$0.67
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.