Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Brewers (50%) · Milwaukee Brewers at 82¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Tampa Bay Rays18¢Milwaukee Brewers82¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Milwaukee Brewers

Consensus Traders

Milwaukee Brewers 50%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$620.62

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 82¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMilwaukee Brewers at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Milwaukee Brewers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tampa Bay Rays18%

Milwaukee Brewers82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Milwaukee Brewers4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares8,066

Combined PnL-$702.99

Tampa Bay Rays4 traders

Total Value$795.65

Total Shares2,203

Combined PnL+$82.38

Milwaukee Brewers — 50%Tampa Bay Rays — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Brewers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMilwaukee Brewers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTampa Bay Rays 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedMilwaukee Brewers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Milwaukee Brewers 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Milwaukee Brewersavg 70¢	$7.9K	$4.8K	-$711.07	56% 6858-5498 (12356)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Tampa Bay Raysavg 32.6¢	$600.24	$662.37	+$62.13	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Tampa Bay Raysavg 28.6¢	$77.6	$97.56	+$19.96	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
HRTrading<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 67.7¢	$87.77	$94.12	+$6.35	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
TO torta.tech<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 62¢	$50.22	$51.84	+$1.62	63% 7960-4740 (12700)
RN1CTR<$100	Tampa Bay Raysavg 36¢	$26.33	$26.33	+$0	54% 55509-47585 (103094)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Tampa Bay Raysavg 34.5¢	$9.11	$9.39	+$0.28	57% 13006-9921 (22927)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.2	+$0.1	53% 6103-5330 (11433)

0xheavy888

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$7,865.33

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$711.07

Record

56%

6858-5498 (12356)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$600.24

Value

$662.37

PnL

+$62.13

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$77.6

Value

$97.56

PnL

+$19.96

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

HRTrading<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$87.77

Value

$94.12

PnL

+$6.35

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

torta.tech<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$50.22

Value

$51.84

PnL

+$1.62

Record

63%

7960-4740 (12700)

RN1CTR<$100

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$26.33

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

55509-47585 (103094)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

13006-9921 (22927)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

6103-5330 (11433)

Research grade

NeutralMilwaukee Brewers at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Milwaukee Brewers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Brewers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMilwaukee Brewers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTampa Bay Rays 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedMilwaukee Brewers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Milwaukee Brewers 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Milwaukee Brewers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.