Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Brewers (75%) · Milwaukee Brewers at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Milwaukee Brewers
4
Milwaukee Brewers 75%
2 arb excluded
$4.2K
$70.8
56¢ → 56¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMilwaukee Brewers at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Milwaukee Brewersavg 56¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$75.55 | 52% 4623-4309 (8932) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 55.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$54.42 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
| └ Milwaukee Brewers leg | Milwaukee Brewersavg 55.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$42.08 | |
| └ Tampa Bay Rays leg | Tampa Bay Raysavg 49.7¢ | $622.12 | $525.63 | -$96.5 | |
FO Forecastication2 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 56.3¢ | $187.75 | $190.66 | +$2.91 | 50% 6677-6671 (13348) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 59¢ | $197 | $187.39 | -$9.61 | 50% 24789-24477 (49266) |
| └ Milwaukee Brewers leg | Milwaukee Brewersavg 59¢ | $150.41 | $142.72 | -$7.68 | |
| └ Tampa Bay Rays leg | Tampa Bay Raysavg 45.9¢ | $46.59 | $44.67 | -$1.92 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 58.1¢ | $50.23 | $47.74 | -$2.49 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 47.2¢ | $47.17 | $42 | -$5.17 | — |
Invested
$2,115.27
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$75.55
Record
52%
4623-4309 (8932)
Invested
$1,624.01
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$54.42
Record
51%
12449-11898 (24347)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.75
Value
$190.66
PnL
+$2.91
Record
50%
6677-6671 (13348)
Invested
$197
Value
$187.39
PnL
-$9.61
Record
50%
24789-24477 (49266)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.23
Value
$47.74
PnL
-$2.49
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
Invested
$47.17
Value
$42
PnL
-$5.17
Record
—
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.