Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Brewers (40%) · Milwaukee Brewers at 99¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Milwaukee Brewers
5
Milwaukee Brewers 40%
2 arb excluded
$15.9K
$3.1K
30.9¢ → 98.7¢
+219% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMilwaukee Brewers at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Milwaukee Brewersavg 36¢ | $4.8K | $5.2K | +$407 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
| └ Milwaukee Brewers leg | Milwaukee Brewersavg 36¢ | $2.8K | $3.3K | +$538.85 | |
| └ Tampa Bay Rays leg | Tampa Bay Raysavg 61.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$131.85 | |
 stringXX | Milwaukee Brewersavg 26.9¢ | $2.9K | $4.6K | +$1.7K | 49% 76-78 (154) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 60.5¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$7.51 | 54% 54908-46856 (101764) |
| └ Tampa Bay Rays leg | Tampa Bay Raysavg 60.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$106.88 | |
| └ Milwaukee Brewers leg | Milwaukee Brewersavg 39.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$114.38 | |
FL Flaznorp | Milwaukee Brewersavg 46.6¢ | $1.3K | $2.7K | +$1.4K | — |
 HRTradingCTR | Tampa Bay Raysavg 54.5¢ | $287.92 | $301.02 | +$13.1 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 73.4¢ | $49.2 | $39.2 | -$10 | 57% 27287-20178 (47465) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 0.4¢ | $0.04 | $0.15 | +$0.11 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
Invested
$4,759.43
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$407
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
Both legs:
stringXXInvested
$2,930
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
49%
76-78 (154)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,070.53
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$7.51
Record
54%
54908-46856 (101764)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,296.8
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
—
HRTradingCTRInvested
$287.92
Value
$301.02
PnL
+$13.1
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Invested
$49.2
Value
$39.2
PnL
-$10
Record
57%
27287-20178 (47465)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.