Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: O/U 3.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (11%) · Under at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 11%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$814.45

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,543

Combined PnL+$687.77

Over8 traders

Total Value$826.29

Total Shares4,093

Combined PnL+$126.68

Under — 11%Over — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 82.7¢	$3.8K	$4.4K	+$687.77	55% 1616-1311 (2927)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 16.5¢	$403.83	$561.92	+$158.09	37% 179-310 (489)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 14.3¢	$61.91	$99.33	+$37.42	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$56.55	$81.29	+$24.74	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 18.2¢	$53.54	$67.54	+$14	36% 410-719 (1129)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 22.5¢	$117.66	$11.25	-$106.41	31% 441-967 (1408)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 35.7¢	$10.91	$3.01	-$1.79	52% 597-541 (1138)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$0.49	$1.26	+$0.77	63% 22-13 (35)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 2.9¢	$0.83	$0.69	-$0.14	42% 282-393 (675)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,758.02

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$687.77

Record

55%

1616-1311 (2927)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$403.83

Value

$561.92

PnL

+$158.09

Record

37%

179-310 (489)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.91

Value

$99.33

PnL

+$37.42

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.55

Value

$81.29

PnL

+$24.74

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.54

Value

$67.54

PnL

+$14

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$117.66

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$106.41

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.91

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$1.79

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.77

Record

63%

22-13 (35)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

282-393 (675)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.