Piratas Veracruz leading at halftime?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $214 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$214.32

Combined PnL

-$1.22

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$214.21

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$66.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$67.58

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 61¢	$70.15	$111.55	+$41.4	46% 311-361 (672)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$48.51	$71.4	+$22.89	31% 416-938 (1354)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$23.1	$24.99	+$1.89	31% 423-938 (1361)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 97¢	$6.09	$6.28	+$0.19	32% 424-920 (1344)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.6¢	$43.56	$0.06	-$43.5	55% 1589-1278 (2867)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.9¢	$45.5	$0.03	-$19.25	42% 230-316 (546)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$2.81	$0.01	-$2.8	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.03	$0.01	-$2.02	45% 262-316 (578)

SnakeBall

Invested

$70.15

Value

$111.55

PnL

+$41.4

Record

46%

311-361 (672)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$48.51

Value

$71.4

PnL

+$22.89

Record

31%

416-938 (1354)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$1.89

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$0.19

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.56

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$43.5

Record

55%

1589-1278 (2867)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$19.25

Record

42%

230-316 (546)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.8

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.02

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.