Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: Draw at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $339 held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$339.37

Combined PnL

$0.74

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$326.23

Total Shares346

Combined PnL+$72.22

No3 traders

Total Value$13.15

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$71.49

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Yesavg 83¢	$92.55	$104.82	+$12.27	31% 438-969 (1407)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 89.1¢	$88.69	$93.43	+$4.74	36% 410-719 (1129)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$24.05	$52.21	+$28.16	31% 441-967 (1408)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$22	$47	+$25	47% 350-393 (743)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$12.87	$14.94	+$2.07	32% 444-952 (1396)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 88.8¢	$20.13	$13.83	-$0.01	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$75.2	$12.8	-$62.4	55% 1616-1311 (2927)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.3	+$0	37% 179-310 (489)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$9.13	$0.05	-$9.08	31% 444-971 (1415)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$92.55

Value

$104.82

PnL

+$12.27

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.69

Value

$93.43

PnL

+$4.74

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.05

Value

$52.21

PnL

+$28.16

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$47

PnL

+$25

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.87

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$2.07

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.13

Value

$13.83

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$75.2

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$62.4

Record

55%

1616-1311 (2927)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

179-310 (489)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$9.13

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.08

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.