Will Venados FC win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.4K
$349.01
74.3¢ → 98¢
+32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$352.89 | 57% 1698-1280 (2978) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $15.77 | $16.44 | +$0.67 | 54% 6261-5300 (11561) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.89 | $1.62 | -$0.27 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $5.85 | $1.58 | -$4.27 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,027.8
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$352.89
Record
57%
1698-1280 (2978)
Invested
$15.77
Value
$16.44
PnL
+$0.67
Record
54%
6261-5300 (11561)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$0.27
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$4.27
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.