Club Atletico La Paz vs. Piratas Veracruz: O/U 2.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$470.92

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 69.5¢

+51% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,016

Combined PnL+$467.92

Over1 trader

Total Value$60

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$3

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 48.4¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$399.71	53% 2421-2179 (4600)
RN1	Underavg 43.3¢	$391.26	$401.8	+$10.54	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 43¢	$271.58	$284.21	+$12.63	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 43¢	$227.29	$237.86	+$10.57	36% 596-1072 (1668)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$124.65	$179.9	+$55.25	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.6¢	$69.46	$101.41	+$31.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.6¢	$55.19	$78.49	+$23.3
dips.	Underavg 54.5¢	$120	$152.9	+$32.9	48% 1176-1281 (2457)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$57	$60	+$3	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$23.61	$24.83	+$1.21	45% 900-1082 (1982)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$13.1	$13.5	+$0.4	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.5	+$0.1	38% 1216-2009 (3225)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.25	-$0.15	38% 1229-2023 (3252)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,207.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$399.71

Record

53%

2421-2179 (4600)

RN1

Under

Invested

$391.26

Value

$401.8

PnL

+$10.54

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$271.58

Value

$284.21

PnL

+$12.63

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$227.29

Value

$237.86

PnL

+$10.57

Record

36%

596-1072 (1668)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$124.65

Value

$179.9

PnL

+$55.25

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

Both legs:

Under$69.4645.6¢+$31.94

Over$55.1923.6¢+$23.3

dips.

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$152.9

PnL

+$32.9

Record

48%

1176-1281 (2457)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57

Value

$60

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$23.61

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$1.21

Record

45%

900-1082 (1982)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$13.1

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0.4

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1216-2009 (3225)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.