Will Club Atletico La Paz win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$23.35
99¢ → 98.4¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$5.3 | 50% 33327-32891 (66218) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $573.53 | $569.76 | -$3.77 | 57% 1698-1280 (2978) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 92¢ | $461.84 | $441.76 | -$20.08 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 10.5¢ | $111.69 | $128 | +$16.31 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 91.7¢ | $42.02 | $44.69 | +$2.67 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $7.58 | $22.96 | +$15.38 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.7 | +$0 | 54% 6261-5300 (11561) |
Invested
$2,630.04
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$5.3
Record
50%
33327-32891 (66218)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$573.53
Value
$569.76
PnL
-$3.77
Record
57%
1698-1280 (2978)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$42.02
Value
$44.69
PnL
+$2.67
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$22.96
PnL
+$15.38
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6261-5300 (11561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.