Will Tlaxcala FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.4K
$429.95
60¢ → 100¢
+66% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $674.45 | $1.1K | +$382.24 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 50¢ | $231.6 | $287.18 | +$55.58 | 55% 1754-1450 (3204) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $33.16 | $29.1 | -$4.06 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
 us391CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $25.85 | $23.69 | -$2.15 | 50% 1694-1661 (3355) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $21.84 | $20.43 | -$1.41 | 59% 10341-7332 (17673) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 48.3¢ | $7.35 | $2.29 | -$0.26 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
Invested
$674.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$382.24
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
Invested
$231.6
Value
$287.18
PnL
+$55.58
Record
55%
1754-1450 (3204)
Invested
$33.16
Value
$29.1
PnL
-$4.06
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
us391CTR<$100Invested
$25.85
Value
$23.69
PnL
-$2.15
Record
50%
1694-1661 (3355)
poshposh<$100Invested
$21.84
Value
$20.43
PnL
-$1.41
Record
59%
10341-7332 (17673)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
$2.29
PnL
-$0.26
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.