Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 0.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 100¢ · $186 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$185.84

Combined PnL

$11.41

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$130.26

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$0.53

Under7 traders

Total Value$55.58

Total Shares540

Combined PnL+$10.88

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Overavg 87¢	$124.27	$124.27	-$0	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$16.13	$30.18	+$14.04	47% 985-1122 (2107)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 16.3¢	$9.67	$13.37	+$3.7	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 88¢	$5.46	$5.99	+$0.53	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 14.6¢	$6.55	$5.85	-$0.7	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$2.84	$3.36	+$0.52	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$1.28	$2.74	+$1.46	35% 520-947 (1467)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$3.72	$0.06	-$3.66	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Underavg 12.8¢	$4.5	$0.02	-$4.48	25% 63-191 (254)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$124.27

Value

$124.27

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.13

Value

$30.18

PnL

+$14.04

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.67

Value

$13.37

PnL

+$3.7

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$0.53

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.55

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.7

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.84

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.52

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.28

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$1.46

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.72

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.66

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.48

Record

25%

63-191 (254)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.