Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: 1st Half O/U 0.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $889 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$888.96
$254.31
46.5¢ → 100¢
+115% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Underavg 37.6¢ | $216.18 | $413.36 | +$197.18 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
 dips. | Underavg 67.7¢ | $125.2 | $184.92 | +$59.72 | 47% 1041-1174 (2215) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 43.6¢ | $48.5 | $111.14 | +$62.64 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 44.4¢ | $41.08 | $92.39 | +$51.31 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $34.32 | $52.46 | +$18.14 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $14.6 | $33.01 | +$18.41 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $1.55 | -$1.95 | 55% 547-442 (989) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 56.7¢ | $141.28 | $0.12 | -$141.15 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
 nacaradogolCTR<$100 | Overavg 30.5¢ | $10 | $0.02 | -$9.98 | 35% 12-22 (34) |
Invested
$216.18
Value
$413.36
PnL
+$197.18
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
dips.Invested
$125.2
Value
$184.92
PnL
+$59.72
Record
47%
1041-1174 (2215)
Invested
$48.5
Value
$111.14
PnL
+$62.64
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
Invested
$41.08
Value
$92.39
PnL
+$51.31
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
RN1<$100Invested
$34.32
Value
$52.46
PnL
+$18.14
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$33.01
PnL
+$18.41
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$1.95
Record
55%
547-442 (989)
Invested
$141.28
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$141.15
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
nacaradogolCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$9.98
Record
35%
12-22 (34)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.