Club Puebla vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 5.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$1.8K
-$494.07
92¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 90.8¢ | $942.82 | $966.18 | +$23.36 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 93¢ | $1.2K | $640.5 | -$550.83 | 50% 33327-32891 (66218) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $10.78 | $77 | +$66.22 | 50% 6989-6984 (13973) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $43.94 | $45.43 | +$1.5 | 50% 25028-24763 (49791) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.7¢ | $39.1 | $34.09 | -$5.01 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $52.08 | $28 | -$24.08 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $11.16 | $6 | -$5.16 | 49% 12596-13007 (25603) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $1 | $0.94 | -$0.06 | 67% 23315-11716 (35031) |
Invested
$942.82
Value
$966.18
PnL
+$23.36
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$1,191.33
Value
$640.5
PnL
-$550.83
Record
50%
33327-32891 (66218)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$77
PnL
+$66.22
Record
50%
6989-6984 (13973)
Invested
$43.94
Value
$45.43
PnL
+$1.5
Record
50%
25028-24763 (49791)
Invested
$39.1
Value
$34.09
PnL
-$5.01
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
Invested
$52.08
Value
$28
PnL
-$24.08
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$6
PnL
-$5.16
Record
49%
12596-13007 (25603)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
67%
23315-11716 (35031)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.