Club Puebla vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.6K
-$21.46
83.5¢ → 79.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 83.2¢ | $682.43 | $688.63 | +$6.2 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83.9¢ | $651.53 | $626.95 | -$24.57 | 50% 25028-24763 (49791) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 84¢ | $168 | $163 | -$5 | 56% 7097-5686 (12783) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $92.26 | $92.48 | +$0.22 | 50% 6989-6984 (13973) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $29.11 | $31.35 | +$2.24 | 51% 3404-3336 (6740) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $2 | $1.45 | -$0.55 | 67% 23315-11716 (35031) |
Invested
$682.43
Value
$688.63
PnL
+$6.2
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$651.53
Value
$626.95
PnL
-$24.57
Record
50%
25028-24763 (49791)
0xheavy888Invested
$168
Value
$163
PnL
-$5
Record
56%
7097-5686 (12783)
Invested
$92.26
Value
$92.48
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
6989-6984 (13973)
Invested
$29.11
Value
$31.35
PnL
+$2.24
Record
51%
3404-3336 (6740)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.55
Record
67%
23315-11716 (35031)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.