Club Puebla vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 55¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares10,450

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,764

Combined PnL-$84.46

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chongchong37	Underavg 48.7¢	$4.4K	$6.1K	+$1.7K	54% 103-87 (190)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 50.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$83.93	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$164.91	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$802.17	$514.22	-$287.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.4¢	$372.54	$495.57	+$123.03
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 63.8¢	$569.32	$477.99	-$91.33	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 66.2¢	$177.79	$143.71	-$34.07	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
0xheavy888	Underavg 68¢	$171.13	$110.38	-$5.99	56% 7097-5686 (12783)
LA LaarsY<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26.23	$26.19	-$0.04	51% 3404-3336 (6740)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$22.4	$23.1	+$0.7	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$7.93	$6.72	-$1.21	49% 7817-8099 (15916)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.56	$1.59	+$0.03	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.56	$1.54	-$0.02	67% 23315-11716 (35031)

chongchong37

Under

Invested

$4,422.71

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

103-87 (190)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,526.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$83.93

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,174.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$164.91

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

Both legs:

Over$802.1751.5¢-$287.94

Under$372.5450.4¢+$123.03

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$569.32

Value

$477.99

PnL

-$91.33

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$177.79

Value

$143.71

PnL

-$34.07

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$171.13

Value

$110.38

PnL

-$5.99

Record

56%

7097-5686 (12783)

LaarsY<$100

Under

Invested

$26.23

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

3404-3336 (6740)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.4

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.93

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$1.21

Record

49%

7817-8099 (15916)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.02

Record

67%

23315-11716 (35031)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.