Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Club Puebla vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 20¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$413.46

Smart Money Entry

37.1¢ → 20¢

-46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL+$298.91

Under5 traders

Total Value$963.49

Total Shares4,511

Combined PnL-$712.37

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 54.6¢	$644.59	$911.44	+$266.85	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 42.1¢	$1.4K	$704.72	-$740.99	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 52.6¢	$552.78	$556.49	+$3.71	74% 6647-2370 (9017)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 70.1¢	$196.56	$228.01	+$31.45	49% 7817-8099 (15916)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 14.6¢	$116.58	$163.98	+$47.4	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Overavg 66¢	$102.32	$110.23	+$7.92	81% 2463-560 (3023)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66¢	$72.76	$58.42	-$14.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.8¢	$29.56	$51.81	+$22.25
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$81.61	$72.74	-$8.87	56% 7097-5686 (12783)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 52¢	$58	$59.11	+$1.12	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 87¢	$44.8	$43.9	-$0.9	59% 10084-7066 (17150)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 86.4¢	$41.68	$38.36	-$3.32	67% 23315-11716 (35031)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 31.7¢	$24.1	$15.57	-$8.53	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$7.87	$6.48	-$1.39	52% 4302-3911 (8213)

RN1

Over

Invested

$644.59

Value

$911.44

PnL

+$266.85

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,445.71

Value

$704.72

PnL

-$740.99

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$552.78

Value

$556.49

PnL

+$3.71

Record

74%

6647-2370 (9017)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$196.56

Value

$228.01

PnL

+$31.45

Record

49%

7817-8099 (15916)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$116.58

Value

$163.98

PnL

+$47.4

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$102.32

Value

$110.23

PnL

+$7.92

Record

81%

2463-560 (3023)

Both legs:

Over$72.7666¢-$14.33

Under$29.5626.8¢+$22.25

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.61

Value

$72.74

PnL

-$8.87

Record

56%

7097-5686 (12783)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$58

Value

$59.11

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$44.8

Value

$43.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

59%

10084-7066 (17150)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$41.68

Value

$38.36

PnL

-$3.32

Record

67%

23315-11716 (35031)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.1

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$8.53

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.87

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$1.39

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.