Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Club Puebla (50%) · Club Puebla at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Club Puebla
8
Club Puebla 50%
$1.8K
$21
79.2¢ → 89.5¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Puebla at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Club Pueblaavg 79.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$112.22 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Pumas de la UNAMavg 19.9¢ | $288.78 | $196.19 | -$92.6 | 50% 25028-24763 (49791) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Club Pueblaavg 75¢ | $99.75 | $93.1 | -$6.65 | 56% 7097-5686 (12783) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Pumas de la UNAMavg 25¢ | $33.25 | $39.9 | +$6.65 | 50% 6989-6984 (13973) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Club Pueblaavg 78.4¢ | $19.45 | $21.46 | +$2.01 | 50% 33327-32891 (66218) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Club Pueblaavg 87¢ | $1.81 | $1.8 | -$0.01 | 67% 23315-11716 (35031) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Pumas de la UNAMavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.5 | -$0.3 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Pumas de la UNAMavg 19¢ | $1.14 | $0.81 | -$0.33 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
Invested
$1,286.48
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$112.22
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$288.78
Value
$196.19
PnL
-$92.6
Record
50%
25028-24763 (49791)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$99.75
Value
$93.1
PnL
-$6.65
Record
56%
7097-5686 (12783)
Invested
$33.25
Value
$39.9
PnL
+$6.65
Record
50%
6989-6984 (13973)
Invested
$19.45
Value
$21.46
PnL
+$2.01
Record
50%
33327-32891 (66218)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.01
Record
67%
23315-11716 (35031)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Club Puebla — $1.4K
GoalLineGhost
CTRPumas de la UNAM — $196.19
0xheavy888
Club Puebla — $93.1
Forecastication2
CTRPumas de la UNAM — $39.9
SnakeBall
Club Puebla — $21.46
pauleta23
Club Puebla — $1.8
topdogbigboi
CTRPumas de la UNAM — $1.5
HRTrading
CTRPumas de la UNAM — $0.81