Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $600 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$600.42
-$3.41
60.3¢ → 56¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60.7¢ | $356.91 | $326.08 | -$18.57 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
MD mde4life1986CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $228.8 | $243.1 | +$14.3 | 50% 152-155 (307) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $16.99 | $17.52 | +$0.53 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $11.5 | +$0.3 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.23 | +$0.02 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$356.91
Value
$326.08
PnL
-$18.57
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$228.8
Value
$243.1
PnL
+$14.3
Record
50%
152-155 (307)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.99
Value
$17.52
PnL
+$0.53
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.