Will Club Puebla win on 2026-10-30?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$12.89

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 71¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,551

Combined PnL+$10.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$35.37

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$2.84

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 74¢	$670.62	$710.37	-$1.08	74% 6647-2370 (9017)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73¢	$306.56	$314.96	+$6.3	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$99.14	$113.96	+$14.82	52% 13757-12562 (26319)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.1¢	$71.01	$68.21	-$2.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.4¢	$28.13	$45.75	+$17.62
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$56.07	$56.99	+$0.92	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
RN1<$100	Noavg 74¢	$44.82	$45.43	+$0.61	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$27.49	$27.89	+$0.4	53% 15932-14110 (30042)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$20.64	$23.22	+$2.58	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$15.42	$16.99	+$1.57	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 70¢	$15.75	$16.99	+$1.24	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$5.55	$6.25	+$0.7	64% 1102-630 (1732)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	58% 18618-13687 (32305)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 75¢	$5	$5	+$0	54% 6261-5300 (11561)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$3.54	$3.4	-$0.14	67% 23315-11716 (35031)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$2.85	$2.5	-$0.3	47% 2324-2589 (4913)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$670.62

Value

$710.37

PnL

-$1.08

Record

74%

6647-2370 (9017)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$306.56

Value

$314.96

PnL

+$6.3

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$99.14

Value

$113.96

PnL

+$14.82

Record

52%

13757-12562 (26319)

Both legs:

No$71.0178.1¢-$2.8

Yes$28.1315.4¢+$17.62

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$56.07

Value

$56.99

PnL

+$0.92

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

RN1<$100

Invested

$44.82

Value

$45.43

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$27.49

Value

$27.89

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

15932-14110 (30042)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.64

Value

$23.22

PnL

+$2.58

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.42

Value

$16.99

PnL

+$1.57

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$16.99

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.7

Record

64%

1102-630 (1732)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

18618-13687 (32305)

Betziko<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6261-5300 (11561)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

67%

23315-11716 (35031)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

2324-2589 (4913)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.