Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Club Puebla vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 0.1¢ · $966 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 63%
$965.59
-$595.2
40.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $564.06 | $564.06 | +$0 | 74% 6647-2370 (9017) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42¢ | $309 | $252 | +$0 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
RO Rocko33 | Yesavg 94.6¢ | $104.1 | $63.8 | -$40.3 | 64% 1102-630 (1732) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $47.73 | $46.62 | -$1.11 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 92.2¢ | $51.85 | $32.62 | -$19.23 | 74% 1587-566 (2153) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $5.8 | -$3.3 | 77% 3282-996 (4278) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $530.78 | $0.68 | -$530.1 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $1.17 | $0 | -$1.17 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
Invested
$564.06
Value
$564.06
PnL
+$0
Record
74%
6647-2370 (9017)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$309
Value
$252
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
Invested
$104.1
Value
$63.8
PnL
-$40.3
Record
64%
1102-630 (1732)
Invested
$47.73
Value
$46.62
PnL
-$1.11
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
Invested
$51.85
Value
$32.62
PnL
-$19.23
Record
74%
1587-566 (2153)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$3.3
Record
77%
3282-996 (4278)
Invested
$530.78
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$530.1
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.17
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.