CF Pachuca vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$1.0K
-$186.1
71.2¢ → 72¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 73.3¢ | $770.23 | $660.42 | -$109.81 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 65¢ | $207.17 | $199.3 | -$7.87 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 26¢ | $221 | $149.64 | -$71.36 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $21 | $25 | +$4 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 66.3¢ | $3.98 | $4.83 | +$0.61 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $5.59 | $3.72 | +$0.03 | 55% 7193-5787 (12980) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $3.4 | $1.7 | -$1.7 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
Invested
$770.23
Value
$660.42
PnL
-$109.81
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
VeryLucky888Invested
$207.17
Value
$199.3
PnL
-$7.87
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
RN1CTRInvested
$221
Value
$149.64
PnL
-$71.36
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
$21
Value
$25
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.98
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.61
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5.59
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.03
Record
55%
7193-5787 (12980)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$1.7
Record
50%
7049-7061 (14110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.