Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CF Pachuca vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 34¢ · $749 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$748.5
-$157.07
46.9¢ → 33.5¢
-29% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $631.2 | $423.26 | -$207.94 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 38¢ | $75.96 | $114.98 | +$39.02 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $93.99 | $87.86 | +$11.15 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $65.37 | $72.8 | +$7.43 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 28.6¢ | $46.73 | $41.65 | -$5.08 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $5.5 | -$1.95 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.45 | +$0.3 | 52% 7347-6663 (14010) |
Invested
$631.2
Value
$423.26
PnL
-$207.94
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
Invested
$75.96
Value
$114.98
PnL
+$39.02
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$93.99
Value
$87.86
PnL
+$11.15
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$65.37
Value
$72.8
PnL
+$7.43
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$46.73
Value
$41.65
PnL
-$5.08
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$1.95
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.3
Record
52%
7347-6663 (14010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.