CF Pachuca vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 0.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$2.6K
$-1.3K
93.2¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 94¢ | $2.3K | $1.3K | $-1.0K | 49% 12788-13237 (26025) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 94¢ | $868.66 | $918.72 | +$50.06 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
 RN1 | Overavg 90¢ | $671.4 | $380.46 | -$290.94 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $90 | $51 | -$39 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
Invested
$2,291.28
Value
$1.3K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
49%
12788-13237 (26025)
Invested
$868.66
Value
$918.72
PnL
+$50.06
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
RN1Invested
$671.4
Value
$380.46
PnL
-$290.94
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
$90
Value
$51
PnL
-$39
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.