Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 77¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$20.28

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 76.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,273

Combined PnL+$16.65

Yes4 traders

Total Value$69.85

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$3.63

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Noavg 75¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$0	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74.7¢	$968.89	$973.05	+$4.15	50% 25353-25122 (50475)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74.2¢	$311.59	$319.46	+$7.87	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$83.63	$81.55	-$2.08	52% 13853-12630 (26483)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.5¢	$58.16	$58.16	-$0
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.7¢	$25.47	$23.39	-$2.08
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$69.32	$74.75	+$0.95	73% 6739-2446 (9185)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.2¢	$31.6	$34.1	+$2.5	53% 16036-14210 (30246)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$30.73	$31.86	+$1.13	57% 1768-1328 (3096)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72.9¢	$213.49	$30.82	+$3.7	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$11.23	$11.23	+$0	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$3.16	$3.14	-$0.02	67% 23397-11771 (35168)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$2.45	$2.45	+$0	54% 6346-5362 (11708)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	52% 7347-6663 (14010)

hi774c

Invested

$3,320.62

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$968.89

Value

$973.05

PnL

+$4.15

Record

50%

25353-25122 (50475)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$311.59

Value

$319.46

PnL

+$7.87

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$83.63

Value

$81.55

PnL

-$2.08

Record

52%

13853-12630 (26483)

Both legs:

No$58.1675.5¢-$0

Yes$25.4726.7¢-$2.08

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$69.32

Value

$74.75

PnL

+$0.95

Record

73%

6739-2446 (9185)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.6

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

16036-14210 (30246)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.73

Value

$31.86

PnL

+$1.13

Record

57%

1768-1328 (3096)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$213.49

Value

$30.82

PnL

+$3.7

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$11.23

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.02

Record

67%

23397-11771 (35168)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6346-5362 (11708)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

7347-6663 (14010)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.