Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$2.7K
$145.94
54.3¢ → 52.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 54.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$147.97 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $22.56 | $20.4 | -$2.16 | 55% 1747-1441 (3188) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $4.9 | $5.03 | +$0.13 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.