Will CF Pachuca vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$62.98

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 94.5¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,387

Combined PnL+$80.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$11.44

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$17.17

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 79¢	$616.99	$620.89	+$3.9	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73¢	$568.15	$568.15	-$0	50% 25353-25122 (50475)
oieshfn345	Noavg 74.4¢	$412.95	$491.69	+$78.74	57% 1768-1328 (3096)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 72¢	$127.07	$128.83	+$1.76	73% 6739-2446 (9185)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 91.6¢	$114.87	$110.48	-$4.4	52% 13853-12630 (26483)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 93¢	$25.11	$25.25	+$0.14	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$24.82	$7.9	-$16.92	49% 12788-13237 (26025)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.35	+$0	52% 7347-6663 (14010)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.41	$1.27	-$0.14	51% 6037-5750 (11787)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.03	$0.93	-$0.1	53% 5014-4502 (9516)

RN1

Invested

$616.99

Value

$620.89

PnL

+$3.9

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$568.15

Value

$568.15

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

25353-25122 (50475)

oieshfn345

Invested

$412.95

Value

$491.69

PnL

+$78.74

Record

57%

1768-1328 (3096)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$127.07

Value

$128.83

PnL

+$1.76

Record

73%

6739-2446 (9185)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$114.87

Value

$110.48

PnL

-$4.4

Record

52%

13853-12630 (26483)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$25.11

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.82

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$16.92

Record

49%

12788-13237 (26025)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

7347-6663 (14010)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.14

Record

51%

6037-5750 (11787)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.